Combine guava, piloncillo, orange peel, cinnamon sticks, cloves, and allspice in a saucepan; add water. Bring liquid to a boil; reduce heat and simmer until a syrup forms, about 10 minutes. Strain syrup into a bowl.
Melt lard in a skillet over medium-high heat; fry baguette slices, working in batches, until golden brown, about 2 minutes per side. Drain on a paper towel-lined plate.
Arrange a layer of fried bread in a baking dish; top with half of the raisins, half of the pecans, half of the pineapple, and half of the cotija cheese. Drizzle half of the syrup over the top. Repeat layering with remaining fried bread, raisins, pineapple, cotija cheese, and syrup. Top with sprinkles. Let stand until bread has absorbed the syrup, 1 to 2 hours.
Butter can be substituted for the lard, if desired.
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